Missile terror from Russia does not stop. Increasingly, the targets of enemy shelling are Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, resulting in a significant deficit in the domestic energy system. “Apostrophe” found out how serious the energy supply situation was, whether the country has the ability to restore damaged capacity, and how ready we will be for the next heating season.
Russia continues to strike at Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The latest massive attack to date, which involved both missiles and drones, occurred on the night of May 8 - a symbolic date when our country, together with the entire civilized world, celebrated the day of victory over Nazism.
According to information from the state-owned company Ukrenergo, in total, more than 50 missiles and 20 kamikaze drones were fired at energy facilities that day in the Lviv, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Kirovograd, Zaporozhye and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Blackouts due to shelling and hostilities were recorded in nine regions - Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Lviv, Nikolaev, Poltava, Kharkov, Sumy.
The DTEK company reported that three of its thermal power plants were damaged as a result of shelling (it did not specify which thermal power plants in question).
In turn, Ukrhydroenergo stated that on the night of May 8, two hydroelectric power stations were disabled due to damage. “Today, all hydro generation has suffered devastating damage,” the company added.
Previously, massive missile and drone strikes on energy facilities were carried out on March 22 and 29, as well as on April 11 and 27.
Unlike the winter of 2022-2023, Russia almost did not shell our country’s energy infrastructure in the past autumn-winter period, but attacks have intensified since the end of March and continue to this day.
The damage caused by these attacks to the domestic energy sector is truly colossal. On March 22, the Zmievskaya TPP in the Kharkov region, as well as CHPP-5 in Kharkov, were destroyed. As a result of this, the second largest city in Ukraine was left without its own generation capacity.
At the same time, on March 22, the Burshtynska Thermal Power Plant (Ivano-Frankivsk region) and the Ladyzhynska Thermal Power Plant (Vinnytsia region), as well as the largest hydroelectric power station in Ukraine, the Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Station, were severely damaged.
In addition, on April 11, the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, located near Kyiv, was completely destroyed. In addition to the Kyiv region, the station also provided electricity to the Zhytomyr and Cherkasy regions.
There is no collapse, there is a shortage
It is clear that enemy attacks on our energy infrastructure have created a huge problem. However, what is the current shortage of electricity in the system?
“Only Ukrenergo can probably assess what our capacity deficit is.” And it’s unlikely that any figures will be presented,” said Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI center for global studies, in a conversation with Apostrophe.
In turn, Gennady Ryabtsev, head of special projects at the Psyche scientific and technical center, noted in a comment to the publication that it is also difficult to assess the amount of deficit in the energy system because it is not a constant value.
“Scarcity is defined as the ratio between generation and consumption at a given moment. But we cannot predict this, because it depends on the sun, wind, the presence or absence of imports,” the expert explained. “We can only say that the balance is very unstable, and at any moment, even at night, a deficit may arise.”
As a result of the destruction of a significant number of energy facilities at certain times, the capacity deficit may reach 10%.
“But there may or may not be such a shortage. Ukrenergo reports at the beginning of each day that a deficit in the energy system is predicted, and what is predicted can reach up to 10%. But this forecast, as a rule, is not realized,” reassures Gennady Ryabtsev.
According to him, the main problem associated with the unstable energy balance is the lack of reserves of maneuverable capacity: “They mainly hit thermal stations and transformer substations of hydroelectric power stations (which ensure maneuverability - “Apostrophe”).”
There is damage to critical infrastructure in almost all regions, but front-line areas suffer the most.
“This is exactly the goal - especially large cities that are located close to the front line or border, where they are constantly being attacked. This is both Kharkov and Odessa. This is a demoralization strategy,” explains Mikhail Gonchar.
In a situation where most energy capacity is destroyed, the most obvious way to balance the system is to import electricity. Ukrenergo is already actively addressing this issue and, as the company reported, a record import volume of 19,484 megawatt-hours from five neighboring countries – Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary – was planned for May 13. The maximum power in some hours reached 1,475 megawatts, despite the capacity limit being 1,700 megawatts (1.7 gigawatts).
Since imports are already close to the limit, it is necessary to achieve its increase, Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, is convinced.
“We need to increase the limit on imports of electrical energy from the European Union from 1.7 gigawatts to 2.5 gigawatts. This is the fastest and most reliable way,” he told Apostrophe.
However, import possibilities are also not unlimited, warns Mikhail Gonchar.
“The energy system operates in an integral mode. There was no collapse, but there is little joy in this, because if the shocks continue, and this is most likely the case, we will find ourselves in a state of shortage, which will manifest itself in rolling blackouts - that is, there will be an hourly supply of electricity, the expert says. “As the hot period approaches, energy consumption will increase, and the presence of energy shortages will entail a number of consequences in the form of, for example, interruptions in water supply.”
With the onset of the autumn-winter period, these problems will only worsen, since they will also be added to the likelihood of interruptions in the supply of heat to homes/
Distribution of capacities throughout the country
There is less than six months left before the new heating season, and this is completely insufficient to restore damaged facilities. This is not to mention the fact that many of them cannot be restored at all.
“It will not be possible to restore it in full,” says Gennady Ryabtsev. “But even if there was such a possibility, we do not have the equipment to install it (at the damaged facilities).”
“Something will be restored, and there will be money for it - as a matter of fact, there was money,” adds Mikhail Gonchar. “But it’s a matter of time, which is not measured in months.” If you order equipment, they won’t do anything in six months – that’s nine months, a year, a year and a half, in some cases up to two years.”
However, according to the expert, there is hope that Lithuania, Germany and some other countries will transfer to us equipment from their shut down thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants: “It seems to me that this is exactly what could hypothetically be done before the next heating season. Although here no one guarantees that they won’t fly again.”
However, the main emphasis should be on the so-called distributed generation.
According to Vladimir Omelchenko, it will be necessary to create many small power plants with a capacity of up to 30 megawatts.
“These are gas piston, gas turbine power plants, cogeneration plants that produce both electrical and thermal energy,” the expert explained.
He also added that near critical infrastructure facilities, be it a hospital or a water utility, it is necessary to install alternative types of generation, for example, diesel generators, so that they ensure uninterrupted operation of these facilities in cases of emergency outages.
“This should have been done after the 2022-2023 season, but somehow I don’t see anything happening in this direction,” says Mikhail Gonchar. - Now they will take on this, but this is a process that is measured not in months, but in years. Therefore, it is very difficult to say what exactly will be done in this direction. To say that now, instead of the destroyed power unit of a thermal power plant with a capacity of 100 megawatts, they will bring us a dozen mobile units of 10 megawatts each, is unlikely.”
However, Gennady Ryabtsev believes that at least something in this direction is being undertaken, first of all, at the local level. True, there are some oddities, since some city leaders think that distributed generation means generators running on diesel fuel, which, of course, are also needed, but they should be used in case of emergencies, and not on an ongoing basis.
“Distributed generation is something that starts from 5 megawatts - and higher up to 30-50 megawatts per unit. They need to be combined into small networks - roughly speaking, those installations that operate in one city should be combined into one network. And this network should be connected to the unified energy system of Ukraine,” says Gennady Ryabtsev. “There are two goals: to achieve self-sufficiency for as many facilities as possible and to relieve the unified energy system and allow it to use the surplus.”
Thus, we can prepare for the next heating season.
“For now the situation is difficult, but controllable, and this situation can be corrected through joint efforts,” Ryabtsev sums up. — For this, it is necessary that the state at the level of the National Security and Defense Council set a priority before the start of the heating season to create a distributed generation system in the amount of at least 300 units of objects (with a capacity of 5 to 30 megawatts each, combined into small distribution systems and connected to unified energy system of the country."
