On Saturday, May 18, truckers in Ukraine began a protest due to changes to the law on mobilization that came into force. Hundreds of trucks blocked the Kyiv-Odessa highway in the Odessa, Kirovograd and Cherkasy regions.
As part of the new law on mobilization, in particular, it is expected that the rules for crossing the state border for military personnel, which include truck drivers, will be tightened. The editors found out how, among other things, this law would affect the supply of automobile fuel to the country and the fuel market in general.
Who hasn't booked...
Domestic road carriers blocked the Kyiv-Odessa highway, thus starting a protest in connection with the new law on mobilization, which came into force on May 18. “Trucks with drivers who do not have a QR code will no longer be allowed abroad. And such a code, as you understand, is TCK and VVK. If this happens, then we will have a fuel crisis,” Dmitry Leushkin, founder of the Prime logistics group, explained recently on television. – And this can be connected not only with fuels and lubricants, but also with medicines, with everything. You understand that we import everything. And if only 5% of trucks remain on the route, it will be a collapse.”
The problem that the entrepreneur points out is related to the fact that after the law on mobilization comes into force, all those liable for military service must update their data in the TCC and receive a special QR code for their military ID. And vehicle drivers are no exception.
For Ukraine, which has just begun to recover from the shocks associated with the long blockade of the border with Poland, the prospect of new problems with international transport is extremely undesirable. After all, today we are forced to import not only all automobile fuel, but also many other critical cargo, including weapons and ammunition.
Of course, transport enterprises are strategically important for the Ukrainian economy (unlike traveling circuses and online casinos). Therefore, their employees had to receive a reservation from the draft. However, not all of them managed to achieve this.
“Many oil traders do not have truck drivers booked,” Sergei Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group, tells Apostrophe. “Some even very respectable, at first glance, gas station chains were unable to do this because they did not meet the criteria necessary for this.”
According to the expert, one of these criteria is the level of staff salaries. But many enterprises practiced “envelopes,” which is why their official salary level turned out to be too low.
“Meanwhile, today the driver of a fuel truck receives 30-80 thousand hryvnia per month, which corresponds to 12-32 thousand hryvnia for personal income tax (personal income tax) and unified social contribution,” says Sergei Kuyun. “And by not wanting to pay their employees white-collar salaries, these firms are now facing the consequences of their tax evasion.”
The fuel market will survive
Will this lead to collapse? “If problems really arise with crossing the border, enterprises will find a way out,” Naftorinka expert Alexander Sirenko told Apostrophe. – After all, ways to solve such problems have already been known since the times when Ukrainian trucks had problems entering the EU due to non-compliance with environmental standards. Foreign cars can bring fuel into Ukraine and transfer it into Ukrainian tanks at the border.”
No matter how the situation on the border develops in the near future, experts do not expect significant problems with fuel supplies.
“Fuel is supplied to Ukraine by various means of transport, and motor transport accounts for only about 15% of this flow. So even if these transportations stop completely, the railway will easily cover the shortfall. Moreover, they definitely will not stop completely, since responsible carriers who worked “in white” have booked their drivers and will continue to work quietly,” says Sergey Kuyun.
The situation is somewhat different with liquefied gas - about a third of this fuel is supplied by road transport. According to Sergei Kuyun, for this reason, “certain turbulence” is possible in the autogas market.
However, not all carriers are afraid of problems with QR codes.
“We contacted the State Border Service and received assurances that on May 18 the procedure for crossing the border will not change,” Vladimir Balin, vice-president of the Association of International Road Carriers of Ukraine, told Apostrophe. – He will remain the same as he is now. If the driver has the proper military registration documents with him, he will be quietly allowed through; if not, TCC representatives will be called. This procedure has been in place since December last year, drivers know it and already have the necessary documents with them.”
According to him, there is an agreement that border guards will not require QR codes in a military ID until July 18: “By this date, all citizens of Ukraine liable for military service will have to update their data in the TCC and receive the appropriate code. So by the time the code becomes mandatory, all drivers will already have it.”
Other issues arising in connection with mobilization are also being resolved. In particular, those related to the registration of vehicles in the TCC.
“Such a norm existed before, although in recent decades its implementation was not very strictly controlled,” says Vladimir Balin. – Now control is being strengthened, and in connection with this some difficulties arise. For example, according to the law, if a vehicle leaves the territory of the region for more than a month, then permission from the TCC is required. Meanwhile, drivers sometimes have to make quite long journeys. If, for example, a carrier from Kharkov travels to Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, then this may last longer than a month. Thus, permission must be obtained, and many businesses do not know how to do this. Therefore, we are now trying to get clarification regarding the procedure for obtaining these permits.”
Prices will still rise
And yet, according to most experts, it will most likely not be possible to do without raising fuel prices. Although this is not connected with mobilization, but with the government’s tax policy.
The Cabinet of Ministers developed, approved and sent to the Verkhovna Rada a bill containing a program for a gradual increase in excise taxes on automobile fuel to a level that the government considers European. The program is designed until 2028 and includes several stages, the first of which will begin on July 1 of this year. From this date, the excise tax on gasoline will increase from 213.5 euros to 242.6 per 1000 liters, on diesel - from 139.5 euros to 177.6 euros per 1000 liters. The rise in liquefied gas prices promises to be the most dramatic. It is expected that the excise tax, which currently stands at 52 euros per 1,000 liters, will more than triple to 165 euros. If the government proposal passes, it will inevitably lead to changes in the numbers on petrol station signs.
“Increasing the excise tax in accordance with the government’s proposal will add approximately 1.5 hryvnia per liter to the cost of gasoline, 2 hryvnia for diesel, and more than 5 hryvnia for liquefied gas,” says Sergei Kuyun. “However, perhaps the final price will increase slightly less.”
Of course, the biggest increase in price awaits owners of cars that run on gas. “If now its cost is about 47% of the price of gasoline, then after raising excise taxes this ratio will increase to 55%. This is a normal proportion that has existed on the market for a long time,” says the expert.
